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fxus65 kfgz 192147 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
245 PM MST Sat Jul 19 2008 


Synopsis...high pressure will reside over The Four Corners region 
into next week. This will allow abundant moisture to move northward 
across Arizona bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm 
activity. 


&& 
Discussion...isolated thunderstorms formed over the high country of 
northern Arizona late this morning into this afternoon. As of 2 PM 
MST...Bellemont received 1.27 inches of rain with pea sized hail. 
This is about half of the radar estimate indicating hail 
contamination. Other strong storms developed over the eastern 
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains with similar radar estimates. Storm 
movement is less than 5 miles per hour. Expect outflow boundaries from these 
storms to trigger other storms in the lower elevations south of the 
Mogollon Rim later this afternoon and evening. Areas north of the 
Mogollon Rim have less surface moisture and are not expected to see 
as much activity this evening. Thunderstorms will move slowly and 
produce locally heavy rain. 


The ridge of high pressure will be positioned near the 4-corners 
this weekend and well into next week. This will allow for a 
substantial increase in showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday and 
Monday...precipitable water values are forecast to increase by half 
an inch (from 12z Saturday to 18z sunday) to well above average 
levels. Heavy rain and possible flooding will be a concern with any 
storms that develop. The favored areas will be along and south of 
the Mogollon Rim where the deepest moisture will reside. Tuesday 
through Friday...little change in the weather pattern is forecast. 
Disturbances moving westward around the southern edge of the ridge 
could even enhance activity at times. 


&& 
Aviation...for the 00z package...expect isolated to scattered shower and 
thunderstorm activity to diminish after 02z. Min ceilings and visibilities will 
be 3k feet above ground level and 3sm for the heaviest storms...including convective 
wind gusts to 35 knots. Showers and thunderstorms will develop again 
after 18z Sunday...with more widespread coverage across the area 
than today. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Tuesday through Thursday...scattered afternoon and evening showers 
and thunderstorms are expected each day as plentiful monsoonal 
moisture remains over the region. Daytime temperatures are expected 
to remain slightly below average along with light winds. 


&& 




Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 
$$ 


Public.............Mas 
aviation/fire weather...ddv 


Visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff for northern Arizona weather 
information.