891 
fxus65 kfgz 042212 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
310 PM MST Friday Jul 04 2008 


Synopsis....expect the daily pattern of isolated to scattered 
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms to continue 
into the weekend. The majority of the activity will be along and 
south of the Mogollon Rim. 


&& 


Discussion...convection has developed about as expected today 
with the focus areas now shifting off the rim. We expect an active 
evening over northern Gila/eastern Yavapai counties with some 
nocturnal activity possible west of I-17. Pattern remains mostly 
unchanged through the weekend...with a slight northward push of 
moisture each day. 


Flow aloft changes to weak northerly early next week...but this will 
not be enough for a significant drying trend. Outflow boundaries will 
counter steering flow at night with central and southern portions 
of the County Warning Area staying in the deeper moisture. In other words...we are 
in the monsoon. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 00z package...scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will continue this evening...with the most numerous storms likely 
south of the Mogollon Rim. A few of the storms will cause brief 
reductions to visibility...wind gusts to 40 knots...and small hail. The 
storms will decrease in coverage after 02z...with only a slight 
chance of showers after 04z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will develop again beginning around 18z Saturday. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments. 
&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Monday through Wednesday...high pressure is expected to shift 
westward to a position just off the West Coast...which would bring 
very slightly drier air into far northern Arizona along with 
generally light northwest winds. The chance of afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms will continue...with the best chances 
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Peterson 
aviation/fire weather...djo 


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