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fxus64 klzk 041948 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
248 PM CDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Discussion... 
main concerns this forecast cycle are first period severe 
potential...then overall convection potential on Saturday with the 
weakening boundary and any possible upper level influence. 


Convection has erupted this afternoon over central and southern Arkansas 
due to boundary proximity...some upper level energy (although 
weak), differential heating adding to instability...and good in 
place moisture (precip water values around 1.25 inches). Slow 
movement with weak west steering flow has also heightened flooding 
threat. Have had some penny hail reports and wind damage with 
storms. Flooding has been minor. 


&& 


Short term...tonight through Tuesday night 
will fine tune convection areas with first period inclusion in 
forecast. Heavy rain will be added to highest pop areas. After 
sunset...overall coverage and intensity will gradually lower...but 
as we saw last evening...isolated strong to severe storms will be 
possible. After midnight...storms expected to settle down. Models 
are consistent in stalling boundary over central Arkansas on 
Saturday...with again some potential of at least weak upper level 
energy moving over Arkansas in the upper northwest flow...as well as overnight 
Saturday. So probability of precipitation will stay in the forecast until Sunday. The 
upper ridge is expected to build back more over the Southern 
Plains as the boundary washes out...and remnants lifts north. 
Then a more Summer pattern with mainly isolated afternoon and 
evening storms...with near normal temperatures. 


&& 


Long term...Wednesday through Friday 
to start the long term...models show a front across southern 
Missouri into northern Arkansas. Put chance probability of precipitation along the 
northern part of the state...with slight chance in the central and 
southern portion of the County Warning Area. This front should remain in place 
through Thursday...with several disturbances moving across the 
area during the period. Kept slight chances of precipitation in 
the forecast for Thursday into Friday morning. Temperatures will 
be near normal through the long term...with highs in the upper 80s 
to lower 90s...and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 




&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 65 86 69 88 / 30 30 10 20 
Camden Arkansas 71 91 71 93 / 70 30 20 20 
Harrison Arkansas 64 85 68 89 / 20 20 10 20 
Hot Springs Arkansas 70 89 71 91 / 70 30 20 20 
Little Rock Arkansas 70 88 70 90 / 40 30 20 20 
Monticello Arkansas 71 90 72 92 / 70 30 20 20 
Mount Ida Arkansas 70 89 70 92 / 70 30 10 20 
Mountain Home Arkansas 64 85 68 88 / 20 20 10 20 
Newport Arkansas 67 86 69 87 / 30 30 20 20 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 71 89 71 91 / 70 30 20 20 
Russellville Arkansas 68 88 69 90 / 30 30 10 20 
Searcy Arkansas 68 86 69 89 / 30 30 20 20 
Stuttgart Arkansas 70 88 70 89 / 50 30 20 20 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...59 / long term...60