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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
253 PM CST Wednesday Mar 10 2010 


Short term...tonight through Saturday night 
big focus in the next 12 to 24 hours will be on the surface low 
pressure out in Oklahoma and its associated boundary. Currently... 
showers/thunderstorms are developing ahead of the frontal boundary 
in North Texas...with isolated cells over northern Oklahoma. Though 
discrete cells will be possible through the late afternoon and early 
evening ahead of the system...things will continue to organize into 
line segments. 


Severe storms will be possible through the afternoon and evening as 
the front and associated convection sweep northeastward across 
Arkansas. Though no portion of the forecast area is exempt from the 
possibility of severe thunderstorms...it appears the area with the 
greatest likelihood will be generally east of a line from Flippin... 
to Hot Springs...to Arkadelphia. In this area...moisture return has 
been the greatest...with dewpoints in the middle 50s to near 60 degrees 
and temperatures have warmed into the middle and upper 70s. Primary 
threats from any strong storms will be hail and wind damage...and 
with increasing helicity values...a tornado or two cannot be ruled 
out. 


Convection will likely clear central Arkansas within a couple of 
hours either side of midnight...with it clearing out of the 
northeast between 09-12z...as the front pushes it into the Ohio 
Valley. 


After the front exits the area late tonight/early Thursday 
morning...cooler and much drier air will blow in on continued 
southwest surface flow. Winds may be a little gusty over the Delta 
Region/prairies of eastern Arkansas during the day. 


Upper low will meander around the Central Plains and the middle south 
for the remainder of the short term periods. This will enhance cloud 
cover...keep small chances of showers in the forecast...and act to 
lower temperatures...especially daytime highs. By Saturday... 
temperatures will be anywhere from five to ten degrees below average 
for middle March. 
&& 


Long term...Sunday through Wednesday 
the long term begins with upper low pressure systems over the 
northeast and over The Four Corners region. Northwest flow will be 
over Arkansas until the western low moves to near Arkansas Tuesday. 
These lows will be slow movers through the period. 


Nothing in the way of cold fronts will be moving through the area. 
Somewhat unsettled weather will be possible with the proximity of 
low pressures to Arkansas. Will keep a slight chance of showers over 
the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Surface high 
pressure encroaches the area Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are 
expected through the period. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 49 65 40 55 / 80 20 20 30 
Camden Arkansas 50 72 44 61 / 80 10 20 30 
Harrison Arkansas 44 57 37 50 / 80 20 20 30 
Hot Springs Arkansas 46 69 42 58 / 80 10 20 30 
Little Rock Arkansas 50 69 43 59 / 90 10 20 30 
Monticello Arkansas 54 75 47 65 / 90 10 20 30 
Mount Ida Arkansas 43 67 42 58 / 80 10 20 30 
Mountain Home Arkansas 48 61 38 53 / 80 20 20 30 
Newport Arkansas 51 66 41 57 / 80 20 20 30 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 53 71 45 63 / 90 10 20 30 
Russellville Arkansas 44 66 41 58 / 80 10 20 30 
Searcy Arkansas 48 69 42 59 / 70 10 20 30 
Stuttgart Arkansas 51 69 44 60 / 80 10 20 30 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...57 / long term...51