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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
333 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Short term...today through Sunday night 
boundary continues across the area just south of Little Rock. Drier 
air has worked into northeast Arkansas. Showers have recently ended 
in southeast and east sections...but developed in north Arkansas 
near the leading edge of the dry air. Dew points are in the middle 60s 
in north Arkansas but still in the lower 70s in the central part of 
the state. 


With the boundary still across the state and northwest flow 
continuing...will need to keep slight chance probability of precipitation in the forecast 
through the period. Did not keep probability of precipitation out of the northeast as the 
boundary tends to waffle around. Models show the boundary moving 
north tonight out of the state and the upper ridge building back in 
from the west. This will keep thunderstorms isolated and allow 
temperatures to increase for the weekend. Drier air seems to move 
into the area Sunday with the ridge centered over Texas...so just 
afternoon and evening probability of precipitation are included...and this may be a stretch. 


&& 


Long term...Monday through Wednesday night 
the extended forecast remains much the same...with the upper ridge 
centered more over The Rockies...while an upper trough over the 
eastern U.S. Models are showing some waffling of the positions and 
this would of course dry the weather out more with the ridge more 
centered over the plains...versus farther west. Chances of isolated 
convection will be in the forecast each day...and temperatures a bit warmer 
than normal values with the influence of the upper ridge. Areas that 
get rain and clouds would be closer to normal. The upper level 
northwest flow will continue to allow some shortwave energy to move 
over or near the Southern Plains. The models and NCEP graphics show 
a weakening frontal boundary near Arkansas or Missouri. This would 
also help trigger convection. Timing and exact location of the 
boundary and shortwave energy over the area are in question...and 
later model runs will help fine tune details. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 90 73 93 72 / 20 30 30 20 
Camden Arkansas 95 74 96 73 / 20 20 20 20 
Harrison Arkansas 88 71 92 70 / 20 30 30 20 
Hot Springs Arkansas 94 73 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 
Little Rock Arkansas 94 74 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 
Monticello Arkansas 95 75 96 74 / 20 20 30 20 
Mount Ida Arkansas 94 73 95 72 / 20 20 20 20 
Mountain Home Arkansas 88 71 92 70 / 20 30 30 20 
Newport Arkansas 91 74 93 73 / 20 30 30 30 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 95 75 95 74 / 20 20 30 20 
Russellville Arkansas 92 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 20 
Searcy Arkansas 93 74 94 73 / 20 30 30 20 
Stuttgart Arkansas 94 75 95 74 / 20 30 30 20 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...51 / long term...59