618 
fxus64 klzk 192335 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2008 


Aviation... 
cloud cover will continue to thin out after sunset tonight. Patchy 
fog will be possible overnight into the early morning 
hours...bringing temperary MVFR conditions. Added cumulonimbus to cloud 
groups for central and southern terminals to account for the 
possibility of more afternoon convection. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2008/ 


Short term...tonight through Wednesday 
Summer looks to be locked in across the area through most of the 
period with a continuation of hot and humid conditions. Some 
precipitation will be possible late in the period but likely 
confined to the northeast parts of the County Warning Area. Short range models in 
generally good agreement with this scenario but NAM may be slightly 
out of phase when compared to the other short term models. GFS seems 
to be a better fit this afternoon is spite of its feedback issues 
and is the preferred model choice. 


Cumulus field developed early in the afternoon with isolated convection 
once again over the southeast in the vicinity of a decaying surface 
trough. Additional convection has fired up over parts of the north and 
central as well as air mass heats up. Not expecting much from this 
activity but still warrants minimal probability of precipitation through early evening. 


Otherwise...the beat GOES on with storm track well to the north and 
broad upper ridge over the southern Continental U.S.. ridge is expected to 
strengthen over the region for Sunday and Monday with widespread middle 
to upper 90s expected. These temperatures...when coupled with high 
humidity levels...produce heat indices over 100 for a couple of 
hours over central and southern Arkansas both days. No headlines 
needed yet but will need to monitor for possible heat advisories. 


All mention of precipitation pulled for Sunday/Monday as middle level 
temperatures are forecast to slowly rise. Actually went a few degrees under 
guidance the next few days as mav continues its warm bias but in 
general...the numbers looked reasonable and were accepted. 


Ridge axis begins to retrograde on Tuesday as middle level trough drops 
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley resulting in a weak northwest 
flow aloft. Surface low located in New England by Tuesday morning 
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Missouri by late 
Tuesday. Will rework the pop grids here a bit to bring higher 
chances of afternoon convection to the northeast part of the 
forecast area. Unlike previous systems that managed to push through 
the region...this boundary stalls along the northeast Arkansas and 
southeast Missouri border on Wednesday with best chances of 
precipitation across the northeast corner of the forecast area. GFS 
precipitation amounts way overdone with obvious feedback and will 
cut them substantially. 


Long term...Wednesday night through Saturday 
a change in the weather pattern is expected to start the long term. 
High pressure is expected to set up over the western United States. 
This will allow for northwest flow over the forecast area...with an 
increase in moisture expected for the end of the work week. Several 
disturbances will move over the area...allowing precipitation to 
develop across the region. Guidance is suggesting chance probability of precipitation for 
Thursday and Friday...but kept slight chances of precipitation in 
the forecast through most of the extended for now. The best chance 
will be in the afternoon and early evening...in association with 
daytime heating. Near normal temperatures are expected to continue 
through the end of the long term. High temperatures will be in the 
90s...and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 71 95 72 95 / 20 10 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 72 97 74 97 / 20 10 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 69 91 71 95 / 20 10 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 73 96 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 74 96 73 97 / 20 10 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 69 95 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 94 72 95 / 20 10 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 73 96 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 69 95 72 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 72 97 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Aviation...61