951 
fxus64 klzk 211110 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
510 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
low clouds were present across northern Arkansas this 
morning...while mainly middle level clouds moved across central and 
southern portions of the state. Patchy light rain continue across 
the area through the morning hours. Low pressure system will move 
south of the state tonight...but could bring some light 
precipitation to the southern part of the state during the 
forecast period. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 245 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion... 
main concerns this forecast cycle are precipitation chances today through 
Sunday with current system moving across the Gulf states. Then 
next chance of rain with the cold front late Monday to Tuesday. 


Current 88d radars depicting areas of light rain and showers 
moving north into Arkansas. Overall rain amounts have been low...but 
coverage will gradually increase. Surface low over the northwest Gulf 
Coast with warm front along the coast. Strongest convection closer 
to the surface low. Upper low over northeast Texas and rotating 
energy into the lower MS valley and Arkansas. 00z klzk sounding has 
moistened up to near one inch for precipitation water...with a light 
veering profile...while quite stable atmosphere. Not seeing much 
lightning at this time...and dont expect much over Arkansas due to 
stable conditions. 


Short term...today through Tuesday night 
generally expecting slight chances of rain over north Arkansas 
today...while transitioning to likely probability of precipitation over south Arkansas. Mainly 
will see light rain and light showers...with occasional moderate 
rain or showers at times...but will be limited. Models do 
concentrate the greatest upper energy over la to lower MS valley 
today...and this area will see the greatest convection. Over 
Arkansas...energy will shear out...hence lighter rain amounts over Arkansas. 
Models take the surface low along the Gulf Coast through Sunday 
the upper low is a bit farther north over la...with some energy 
into mainly southern and eastern Arkansas. Pop has been forecast to move 
east...then a bit northeast...before moving out of Arkansas Sunday 
morning. Surface flow mainly east...becoming a bit northeast... 
before becoming east to southeast later Sunday to Monday ahead of 
the next system. 


Monday will be dry...but clouds will still be seen with some 
shortwave energy in the mean flow moving across the area. Then 
Monday night to Tuesday...slight chances of rain are back in the 
forecast as a cold front swings through the Central Plains and 
reaches Arkansas. Moisture levels will remain low...and overall pop and 
rain amounts will be low. Some frontal timing seen in GFS and 
European model (ecmwf)...with GFS a bit faster. Forecast generally went with a bit 
faster trend of GFS. Then surface high builds in behind the front 
with dry and cooler weather. 


Temperatures will be around to a bit above normal values through 
Monday...but cooling Tuesday with the cold front. 


Long term...Wednesday through Friday 
frontal boundary and associated low pressure system will have 
moved east of the state by the beginning of the long term. Behind 
the front...high pressure is expected to build into the 
area...allowing dry weather to set up through the end of the 
period. A weak disturbance will move through the state on 
Wednesday. Little moisture will be associated with this 
system...and precipitation is not expected with its passing. 
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the 
period...with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s...and lows in 
the upper 20s to upper 30s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 61 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 62 45 66 44 / 60 50 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 58 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 61 43 64 44 / 40 30 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 61 44 64 44 / 30 30 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 62 46 65 43 / 50 50 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 61 42 64 44 / 40 30 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 60 42 62 44 / 20 20 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 62 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 62 45 64 43 / 40 40 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 61 44 62 44 / 30 30 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 62 45 63 43 / 30 30 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 




Aviation...60