328 
fxus64 kmeg 060122 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
822 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 
the southern half of the middle south is on the tail end of an active 
evening with strong to severe storms in progress near the 
Tennessee River. A 500 mb shortwave upper trough enhanced convection 
along a stationary front across southwest Tennessee and northern MS. 
Received reports of large hail and flash flooding. Expect this 
activity to continue to diminish over the next hour or two. 


Dense fog is likely to reform across portions of the middle south 
later tonight...especially in areas along and north of Interstate 
40. Will wait until significant convection ends before updating 
the forecast package. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Discussion... 
scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move 
across eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi this afternoon. 
Some of these storms have been strong but for the most part...have 
stayed under severe thunderstorm criteria. These storms will 
likely continue through the evening and overnight hours as a 
stationary front remains over the area and an upper level impulse 
moves across the midsouth from the northwest. Think the best 
chance for convection will once again be limited to eastern 
Arkansas and north Mississippi as drier air begins to filter 
across northern portions of the midsouth as seen on water vapor. 
Areas of fog...some possibly dense...will develop once again after 
midnight in much of the same locations as last night. Decided to 
hold off on a dense fog advisory for now and will let the evening 
shift reevaluate this possibility. 


Upper level trough will slowly move across the area on Sunday 
helping to initiate more showers and thunderstorms especially 
during the afternoon and evening hours. Think the best chance for 
storms will be across north Mississippi again but not as 
widespread as today. As a result...warmest temperatures will 
occur west of the Mississippi River with highs in the low to middle 
90s while areas east of the river will reach the middle to upper 80s. 


Upper ridge will begin to build over the area on Monday and 
eventually bring drier air into the area. Afternoon and evening 
convection looks to develop once again across northeast 
Mississippi on Monday where the moisture and lift will be greatest. 
This trend will continue on Tuesday where most locations will be 
dry and warm with some areas nearing the middle 90s for highs. 


By middle week...another cold front associated with an upper trough 
will begin to approach the area from the north. This front looks to 
stall just north of the forecast area but will become a focus for 
thunderstorm development Wednesday and Thursday. An upper ridge 
once again builds back across the area on Friday bringing somewhat 
drier conditions to the midsouth. High temperatures will return 
to the low to possibly middle 90s with lows near 70 degrees. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 72 91 75 92 / 30 20 10 10 
mkl 66 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 10 
jbr 70 93 73 95 / 30 20 10 10 
tup 69 88 71 90 / 40 30 10 20 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Kns/rjo