051 
fxus64 kbmx 072041 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
341 PM CDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Discussion...smack dab in the middle of a significant change 
in the weather...with cooler...drier air poised to move into 
central Alabama over the next several days. Forecast/forecast 
reasoning remains largely unchanged...with cold front pushing 
through the area overnight tonight. Still will have some storms to 
deal with for the remainder of the day...but threat for severe is 
waning...as storms move away from best upper dynamics. There still 
could be a few strong to marginally severe storms. Will clear a 
chunk of counties here momentarily...then allow the remainder of 
the watch to expire at 5pm. 


Licking our chops here looking at the low dewpoints in the Ohio 
Valley...and eager to get a break in the sultry Summer weather. 
Temperatures will still be right around 90...but lower humidity will be 
noticeable...making the heat temperatures much more bearable. 


Big change in the forecast...featured in both GFS and Euro...is 
increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms in the 
northwest flow. Believe this is entirely feasible...as the front 
will be wavering somewhere in the southeast...and overrunning 
short waves should be able to initiate convection along that 
boundary. Confidence here is low however...and a relatively slight 
variation in the amplitude and placement of features will make a 
difference in the forecast. At the very least...climatological 
probability of precipitation are about right. 


Jd/81 


&& 


Aviation...18z taf discussion. 


Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact all taf 
sites over the next 12 hours. MVFR to IFR conditions can be 
expected. Some of these storms could be severe...capable of wind 
gusts in excess of 55 miles per hour...quarter size hail and heavy rainfall 
reducing visibility to less than 1 mile. Storms will likely sustain 
themselves after sunset as a cold front sweeps across central 
Alabama. Winds will turn northwesterly overnight and patchy fog may 
develop. Conditions are looking much more favorable for aviation 
after sunrise tomorrow. 


12 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 66 89 60 88 58 / 50 0 10 10 10 
Anniston 68 91 63 89 62 / 60 10 10 0 10 
Birmingham 69 91 63 89 61 / 40 10 0 0 10 
Tuscaloosa 71 91 64 92 62 / 40 10 0 0 10 
Calera 70 90 64 89 63 / 60 10 10 10 10 
Auburn 70 90 66 90 64 / 60 10 10 10 10 
Montgomery 72 93 66 92 64 / 60 20 10 0 0 
Troy 71 92 65 91 61 / 50 30 10 0 0 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


81/81/12