098 
fxus64 kbmx 052339 rra 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Update...updated for aviation discussion. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Discussion a bit abbreviated due to ongoing convection this 
afternoon. Upper trough axis and a few disturbances will rotate 
across the forecast area through Sunday. It still appears that no 
airmass change will take place as main cold front remains north of 
the area. Therefore...convection through Sunday will be associated 
with upper features as well as smaller scale outflow boundaries and 
differential heating. With the added upward motion associated with 
the upper features combined with the moderate microburst potential... 
a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible through 9 PM 
this evening...and again on Sunday generally from 1 to 9 PM. Even 
with middle level winds increasing a bit...overall storm organization 
is not expected and most of the strong activity will diminish due to 
loss of daytime heating. 


GFS/WRF/ECMWF/GFS ensemble all have a slightly different picture of 
the evolution through the remainder of the period. GFS does not 
have much in the way of middle to upper features that the others carry 
with regard to lift and moisture entering the picture from the 
south. GFS has a northern stream trough affecting the area by 
around Thursday. Will lean more toward The Middle Ground between 
solutions...ECMWF/GFS ensemble. 


Will continue the forecast trend of bringing in overall drier air 
through Tuesday. This knocks the rain chances down a bit areawide... 
most notably north. For Wednesday through Friday...very moist and 
unstable airmass settles in across the area but no real trigger 
besides heating. Will keep a highly climatological feel to probability of precipitation and 
will have to monitor those models solutions that bring some 
trigger from the north or south. Generally...highs around 90 and lows 
around 70. 


75/linhares 




&& 


Aviation...00z taf discussion. 


Convection finally beginning to wind down across most sites with the 
exception of anb and toi...but expect the same over the next hour. 
Do have some additional development upstream so left showers as a 
possibility through midnight or later. Most likely will see some 
ground fog development over sites that saw rain today. Expecting 
convection again tomorrow across the entire area as a stationary 
surface boundary continues to stall right across central Alabama and 
another middle level disturbance rotates through. 


17 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


75/75/17