722 
fxus64 kmob 072013 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
313 PM CDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Short term [tonight and friday]...upper air analysis shows an 
amplified pattern with ridge over The Four Corners of the Desert 
Southwest and a weakness/trof...east of the Mississippi River. Quite 
a bit of cold cloud tops=>thunderstorms initiating within a moist and 
unstable environment from the southeast states northwest into 
Arkansas. Storms upstream will be a player in the forecast for the 
short term as northwest flow aloft should bring this activity 
southeastward into the forecast area. At the surface...a weak frontal 
boundary from the Carolinas...westward into Oklahoma will also be 
heading slowly this way. This front will provide a focus...along with 
middle level disturbances riding southeast in the flow aloft will create 
an environment conducive for thunderstorm maintenance and 
persistence...even at night when we would otherwise come to expect a 
complete decrease in activity. A moderate chance of thunderstorms 
will remain in the official forecast until late Friday morning...when 
forecasters expect the bulk of the thunderstorm activity to move off 
the coast. Some of the storms could be strong and a few may reach 
severe levels as well. Brief strong/possibly damaging winds...in 
strong/few severe thunderstorms...will be the main threat along with 
heavy rains and frequent lightning. No major change to temperatures. 
/10 


Long term [saturday through thursday]...frontal boundary looks to be 
near or just south of the coastal counties Saturday. We start 
off...yes...into the middle to upper 60s Saturday morning. Although 
daytime highs lift into the lower 90s...much lower dewpoints north 
of the front will take the edge off the humidity effect. This nice 
reprieve will be very brief. Forecasters anticipate southwest 
Atlantic surface high pressure nosing westward into the middle Gulf to 
allow Gulf moisture to recover/deepen over the region heading into 
next week. See no reason to make any changes to temperatures/weather 
for next week. Anticipate chances of thunderstorms to be slightly 
higher during the daytime hours diminishing each evening Monday 
through Thursday. /10 


&& 


Aviation (18z issuance)...expect better coverage of showers and 
thunderstorms later today and tonight with mostly broken to overcast 
conditions beginning late this afternoon and evening and continuing 
through 18z Friday. Ceilings and visible primarily VFR through period...but 
briefly at times dropping to IFR. 12/ds 


&& 


Marine...high pressure over the north central Gulf will continue to 
weaken through early Sunday in response to a series of upper level 
disturbances and a trailing frontal boundary approaching from the 
north. The weak front will stall near the Alabama and northwest 
Florida coast by early Friday...resulting in scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon...and 
continuing Friday and Saturday. High pressure will begin to rebuild 
over the north central Gulf late Sunday through Tuesday. 12/ds 


&& 


Fire weather...a frontal boundary is forecast to slip southward toward 
the Gulf Coast by Friday with scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms anticipated along and ahead of the front. With the 
front forecast to slip offshore later in the day Friday and stall...a 
much drier airmass looks to settle over the area by Saturday. Gridded 
humidity fields suggest these dipping below 35 percent. Could very 
well see fire weather watches issued on later shifts for portions of 
the area for Saturday. With a much deeper mixed layer...daytime 
dispersion levels on Saturday will improve to well within good 
levels. /10 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 74 89 69 92 / 50 60 10 05 
Pensacola 75 89 70 92 / 50 60 10 05 
Destin 77 89 73 91 / 50 60 10 10 
Evergreen 71 91 60 92 / 50 30 05 05 
Waynesboro 71 91 62 94 / 60 30 05 05 
Camden 72 91 61 93 / 60 30 05 05 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$