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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1130 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Updated...aviation discussion. 


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Discussion... 


An area of very light rain was located across southeast Alabama this 
morning...well ahead of the main system over the northwest Gulf of 
Mexico. The next wave of rain is still back in southeast 
Louisiana...and it will take it most of the day to reach south 
central Alabama counties. Air mass is still very dry across central 
Alabama with precipitable water off 12z bmx sounding at .34 inches. 
Forecast has been updated to reduce rain chances for today and also 
raise temperatures for areas north of Montgomery due to less cloud 
cover. 


58/rose 




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Aviation...18z taf discussion. 


Clouds and rain have been slow to arrive and have backed off arrival 
times at all taf sites. VFR conds will prevail through 23z with only 
scattered-broken middle level clouds. Rain will move into southwest Alabama by 
00z and reach sites mgm-toi-tcl. MVFR conds will spread into all 
sites by 03z mainly due to visibilities associated with rain...as lower 
ceilings will be slower to arrive due to dry air mass in place. Once 
rain begins...it will likely persist through 18z with visibilities 3-5 in 
rain/fog...with local visibilities below 3 miles in heavier showers. IFR ceilings 
will likely develop at kmgm and ktoi by 09z...and there is chance 
IFR ceilings could spread northward into all taf sites after 12z...but 
drier easterly low level flow may keep ceilings above 1000 feet above ground level. 


Overall trend will be for deteriorating conds during the overnight 
hours. 


58/rose 




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Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none.