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fxus64 kbmx 192358 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
658 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2008 


Update...for aviation. 


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Discussion...tonight. 


Haze is expected to continue tonight across central Alabama. 
Otherwise...expect a mild evening with temperatures ranging between 
the lower 60s to lower 70s. After the sun sets...expect skies to 
become clear. 


10/arm 




Sunday and Monday...a very stagnant air mass will continue due to 
weak ridging at the surface and aloft. Warm temperatures aloft and 
very weak forcing mechanisms will result in minimal rain chances 
Sunday and Monday. A weak surface trough will slide southeast into 
the Appalachian Mountains late Sunday...and trigger a few storms 
across eastern Tennessee...some which may drift into north 
Alabama. This boundary will settle across central Alabama on 
Monday...and provide focus isolated storms Monday afternoon. The 
heat will be on Sunday and Monday with highs in the middle to 
upper 90s. 


Tuesday through Saturday...the combination of a tropical system moving 
through the southern Gulf of Mexico and digging upper trough over the 
eastern United States will produce a cooler and more favorable 
environment for convection by middle part of the week. Southerly 
flow on east side of Gulf system will increase moisture across 
central Alabama and upper trough moving in from the north will 
provide the trigger mechanism for scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will likely climb back to 
the two inch range by Wednesday and remain 1.5-2 inches through the 
end of the week. A short wave trough pushing in from the north on 
Friday could bring in drier air and higher rain chances included 
for southern counties. Main change to forecast was to increase 
probability of precipitation slightly across southern counties on Tuesday due to influence 
of Gulf system. 




58/rose 


&& 


Aviation...00z taf discussion. 


Haze beginning to impact the area again at anb and will eventually 
affect all taf sites after 2 to 4z. Expect these MVFR conditions 
through 15 to 18z. May see tempo IFR visible at eet...anb...and tcl from 
9 to 12z. Conditions will slightly improve by the afternoon as 
visibilities bounce back barely to VFR. Some sites will remain MVFR 
for much of the period. 


16 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$