580 
fxus64 kmob 182053 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
350 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...surface high pressure ridge 
currently over Gulf Coast states expected to maintain itself through 
the weekend as low pressure (possibly becoming tropical in nature) 
off the southeast Atlantic coast this afternoon moves slowly 
north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. This pattern will result in the 
development of a better established onshore lolvl wind flow across 
our area this weekend...bringing increased moisture to the region. 
500 mb heights rise slightly over the weekend...so even with the 
increased lolvl moisture won't have any real large scale forcing 
mechanisms for convective initiation. Small scale forcing... 
primarily sea breeze interactions...combined with daytime heating 
will be primary means for thunderstorm development...so only looking at 
isolated coverage during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday 
and Sunday. Daytime maximum temperatures a degree or two above this weekend... 
especially for interior zones where highs will reach middle 90s in some 
locations. Overnight min temperatures will continue in the low to middle 70s 
across the region through Sunday night. 12/ds 


&& 


Long term (monday through friday)...did not make many adjustments 
to the extended forecast from previous. A few tweaks to temperatures 
were made to match guidance...however. Left previous pop forecast as 
was...with isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible Monday and Tuesday continuing 
to be primarily driven by daytime heating and sea breeze influences. 
By Wednesday and continuing into Friday...upper ridging weakens 
slightly and a weak surface frontal boundary slips into the southeastern 
states from the north. This will result in a slight increase in rain 
chances middle to late week...which will support chance probability of precipitation. Expect 
temperatures to trend toward climatology...Max's in the lower 90s and min's in 
the lower 70s. 12/ds 


&& 


Marine...low pressure off the southeast United States coast is 
forecast to move slowly northeast...skirting the coast line there 
this weekend...while high pressure noses westward across the 
northern Gulf. Forecasters expect little change in winds and seas 
over our marine area from what was passed down from the previous 
shift. On a side note...the tropics have become a bit more active 
over the past couple days with a couple systems being watched over 
the western and central Caribbean (as well as the system just off 
the southeast Atlantic US coast). The first Caribbean system was 
moving westward over Central America. The second...a tropical wave 
over the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Aruba was moving 
west northwest. For now...it appears enough high pressure in the 
middle/high levels of the atmosphere will be present over the deep 
south to act as a shield...deflecting any tropical system moving out 
of the western Caribbean this weekend westward across the far 
southern and southwest Gulf into the early half of next week. 10/gjm 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions. 10/gjm 


&& 
fire weather...a low pressure system just off the Georgia coast 
will move northward through the weekend with high pressure building 
over the southeast states. Only a slight chance of afternoon showers 
or thunderstorms is expected over the weekend. Afternoon relative 
humidities will remain above critical levels through early next 
week. 12/ds 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 74 93 73 93 / 10 20 10 20 
Pensacola 74 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 20 
Destin 77 89 77 92 / 10 20 10 20 
Evergreen 69 93 69 94 / 05 20 10 20 
Waynesboro 67 94 68 94 / 10 10 10 10 
Camden 69 94 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$