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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
200 PM akdt Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Model discussion... 
12z GFS is in closer agreement with the European model (ecmwf) than in the previous 
run. The European model (ecmwf) has been more consistent run to run than the GFS and 
has been the model of choice. The NAM continues to differ from the 
other models with the Gulf low. The NAM solution has a stronger low 
about 200 nm east of the other models by Friday morning. The plan today 
is to stick with the European model (ecmwf) and GFS solution. 


Analysis and upper levels... 
the predominate upper air feature is a cold upper low centered 
over Bethel and digging down toward the Gulf of Alaska. A strong 
shortwave in the Susitna Valley continues to produce widespread rain 
in south central Alaska. This wave is moving east tonight and 
Thursday. A weak circulation over the western Aleutians is moving 
slowly east. 


Short term forecast... 
southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper low will continue to pump 
moisture into the southern Mainland. As the upper low moves to Kodiak 
Island by Thursday morning showers will end over the southwest 
Mainland. Drier air will move over the West Coast on Thursday as high 
pressure builds over the eastern Bering. Further west weak low will 
persist over the western Aleutians through Thursday then move to the 
eastern Aleutians Friday. Expect occasional rain fog and 
low clouds with this low. Fog and low clouds are expected to persist 
over the central and eastern Bering under a ridge through Friday. 


The weak low moving to the Gulf from western Alaska will combine in 
the central Gulf with another weak low moving in from south of the 
Gulf on Thursday. This low will remain nearly stationary then move 
slowly toward the Panhandle Thursday night and Friday. Drier and 
warmer weather is expected for south central Friday as this low moves 
east. 


Long term forecast... 
there is still a lot of inconsistency in the models for the weekend. 
There will be an upper trough extending from the eastern Gulf to 
another upper low over Norton Sound during the weekend. This 
increases instability and the chance of showers and clouds. The 
possible good news is that south central may be in a break in between 
the two lows. Since the lows are weak and the guidance is 
inconsistent it is too early to tell which will win out. 




Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...ash fall advisory zone 185. 
Marine...gale 120 132 150. 
Fire weather...none. 


Rhh Jul 08 

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