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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
247 PM akst Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
pattern change well underway as closed low aloft presently SW of 
Barrow drifts shears apart..with some energy moving north and some 
SW into the Bering Sea. Short wave ridge builds from Southeast Alaska 
nwwd into interior. By midweek...close low aloft anchored in the 
southeast Bering Sea. 


Numerical guidance in good agreement in the short term...though by 
Tuesday afternoon significant differences developing in Gulf of 
Alaska. For northern Alaska Middle-Range guidance broadly in 
agreement...though details differ. Basically...low height ridging 
aloft over most of the County Warning Area should be relatively quiet early winter 
weather. 


North Slope...winds remaining light. Areas of low clouds will 
modulate temperatures...though western zones remaining cool. A weak Chinook pipeline 
eastward by Tuesday. 


West Coast...mositure spreading northward into southeastern zones next 
24 hours wiith at least some snow sun into Sun night. Some 
increase in winds Seward Peninsula southward but no problems expected. 
Temperatures too warm for wind chill advisories. 


Interior...airmass moderating from southeast to northwest though in eastern zones 
some valleys will remain chilly for lack of clouds/mixing. Some 
increase in pressure gradient...especially Sunday. However...air mass aloft 
warming enough that no wind chill problems expected. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210. 
&& 


$$ 


Rt Nov 09 

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