139 
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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
500 PM akst Sat Nov 21 2009 


Changing pattern continues due to strong storm moving along the southern 
Bering. Near blizzard conditions pribilofs especially pasn as tight low 
center moves by to their south. Warmer air and rain forecast earlier 
tried but couldn't materalize due to storms southern track. As winds 
become more northerly later tonight snow fall should become more showery 
and temperatures will fall again and continue through Sunday night. 


Blizzard Warning now out for the southwest coast from the western convective available potential energy 
of zone 161 north across Nunivak Island. Latest GFS run maintaines the 
storms strength as it moves to western Bristol Bay Sunday afternoon. Low 
then weakens faster and it moves into Kuskokwim Bay Monday afternoon. 
Slow movement and track of the low should result in a pretty good 
snowfall across both zones through Monday afternoon. 


Gulf low handeled pretty well by models but the next one that rolls up 
on thuesday is more questionable. Lastest ec run or the pervious GFS run 
are used by the grid desks. 




Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...Blizzard Warning zone 155 and western convective available potential energy of 161. 
Marine...storm areas 176..172..175. 
Gale areas 150..155..160..165..180..170..171..185..179. 
Fire weather...none. 


Percy Nov 09 

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