663 
fxak69 pafg 052316 
afdafg 


Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
316 PM akdt Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a persistent high aloft over the northern half of Alaska will 
weaken slowly through Monday. Very dry air under the high is 
inhibiting convection and allowing maximum heating of the warm 
airmass causing temperatures in the 75-85 range across most of 
northern Alaska including a record high at Nome today. 
Temperatures over northern Alaska will remain warm but cool a few 
degrees sun and Monday as the high weakens. 


A low aloft now near Eagle will move to near Fairbanks by 4pm sun 
and to near Ruby by 4pm Monday. Slightly cooler air aloft and added 
moisture associated with this low will move west with the low 
increasing convection over interior Alaska. Expect scattered 
thunderstorms near this low aloft today through sun. 


At the surface a thermal low pressure trough from Northway to 
Bethel to Nome will move to Northway to Denali to Bethel and then 
south by 4pm sun and to Old Crow to Bettles to Bethel by 4pm Monday. 
Expect isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along this 
thermal trough. 


A surface high stretching from the northern Beaufort Sea to the 
chukotsk peninsula to the central Bering Sea will move to the 
northern Beaufort to the Seward Peninsula to the eastern Bering 
Sea Monday. This ridge is causing north winds and fog along the 
coasts from Barrow to the Bering Strait that will continue into 
Sun night. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models initialize well and show similar solutions. High 
confidence in models due to good agreement. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Fire weather... 
hot dry conditions and gusty winds will persist through this 
evening along with the current red flag conditions. Winds will 
decrease sun and rh's will increase with the low aloft. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
none. 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning for akz216-akz219-akz220-akz221-akz222. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz245. 


Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz240. 
&& 


$$ 


Jb Jul 08 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)